The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued its latest report on September 3, confirming the formation and continued intensification of the El Niño phenomenon. It is projected to develop into a super-intensity event, significantly impacting global precipitation and temperature patterns, with related extreme weather risks persisting until 2027.
The report indicates that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Nino 3.4 zone), a key indicator of El Niño intensity, are already 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above average, and continued to rise from late July to mid-August, with weekly averages deviating from normal levels by more than 2.5 degrees Celsius, indicating that El Niño is still intensifying. More seriously, subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas are more than 8 degrees Celsius above average, and this abnormal heat accumulation provides strong impetus for El Niño's continued intensification. The WMO predicts that the probability of El Niño continuing until February 2027 is close to 100%.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Joachim Sauer stated that the damage caused by drought and floods is already evident, and these effects are expected to intensify as El Niño strengthens. This unusual event requires special preparedness and response measures.
The WMO points out that a super El Niño will significantly alter rainfall, temperature, and atmospheric circulation patterns in many regions globally, increasing the risk of floods, droughts, and extreme heat. However, the intensity of the event itself does not directly determine the severity of damage in a specific region; the actual impact varies depending on geographical location and season, and is also influenced by other climatic factors, including anomalies in sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
To address this unusual event, the WMO has announced its largest mobilization in 50 years, collaborating with national meteorological and hydrological departments to strengthen forecasting and early warning services.
The WMO emphasizes that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, not caused by climate change. It typically occurs every two to seven years, lasts approximately nine to twelve months, generally begins to develop between March and June, and reaches its peak intensity between November and February.
